The notion of Donald Trump "supporting" Iranian-backed militias sounds like a fever dream born from the darkest corners of a geopolitical simulation. Yet, as the smoke clears over Tehran following the February 2026 launch of Operation Epic Fury, a far more complex and transactional reality is surfacing. It is not about support in the traditional sense of alliance. It is about the cold, hard logic of a developer-turned-commander-in-chief who views every armed group in the Middle East as a potential subcontractor in a massive, forced liquidation of the Islamic Republic.
While the world watches the sky for incoming missiles, the real story is happening in the shadows of the Levant and the shifting corridors of Baghdad. Trump is not looking to "foster" these groups; he is looking to buy their neutrality—or their betrayal.
The Art of the Militia Deal
For decades, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has maintained a "land bridge" from Tehran to the Mediterranean. They did this through the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and various outfits in Syria. The conventional Washington wisdom was to treat these groups as a monolith of "malign influence" to be systematically dismantled.
Trump’s second-term strategy has pivoted. Instead of a blanket policy of kinetic elimination, his administration has reportedly opened backchannels to specific factions within the PMF. The message is blunt: The old boss is dying, and his checks are starting to bounce.
Recent intelligence suggests that U.S. intermediaries, operating through Gulf partners, have offered certain militia leaders a "legacy deal." In exchange for staying in their barracks while U.S. and Israeli jets dismantle the Iranian nuclear and command infrastructure, these groups are being promised a seat at the table in a "post-regime" regional architecture. It is a gamble that treats ideological zealots like corporate board members during a hostile takeover.
Why the Middle East Order is Cracking
The Middle East is currently at a hinge moment where the old rules of engagement have been discarded. The death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, reportedly during the initial waves of the February 28 strikes, has triggered a frantic scramble for survival among his proxies.
In Iraq, the PMF is no longer a unified front. Some units remain fiercely loyal to the IRGC’s Quds Force, but others—particularly those with deep economic ties to the Iraqi state—are looking for an exit strategy. Trump’s team has identified this fracture. By signaling a "willingness to support" or at least tolerate those who turn against Tehran, the U.S. is effectively weaponizing the Iranian regime's own creations against it.
This isn't about human rights or spreading democracy. It is about a "Peace Through Strength" doctrine that prioritizes the absolute removal of the nuclear threat and the total degradation of the IRGC. If that means paying off a few thousand militiamen to look the other way, or even to provide "security" during a chaotic transition, the White House appears ready to sign that check.
The Risks of a Proxy Pivot
Critics argue this strategy is playing with fire. You cannot easily decouple a militia from the ideology that birthed it. By treating these groups as legitimate stakeholders, the U.S. risks legitimizing a new generation of warlords who will eventually turn their sights back on Western interests.
History is littered with the remains of "temporary" alliances with radical groups. The Mujahideen in Afghanistan is the classic example. But the Trump administration seems to believe that the sheer scale of the current military buildup—the largest since 2003—provides enough leverage to keep these groups in line. They are betting that the "Maximum Pressure" campaign on the Iranian rial has left these militias so desperate for cash that their loyalty is up for the highest bidder.
The Economic Liquidation of the Axis
The strategy isn't just military; it is a forced bankruptcy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s engineering of a dollar shortage within Iran has forced the regime to prioritize its internal survival over its external proxies. For the first time in forty years, the "Axis of Resistance" is facing a payroll crisis.
This is where the Trump doctrine hits the ground. When the money stops flowing from Tehran, the militias have two choices: go down with the ship or find a new financier. By keeping the door slightly ajar for "cooperative" elements, the U.S. is attempting to dismantle the Iranian empire from the inside out, using the very soldiers who built it.
The Endgame in Tehran
The ultimate goal of Operation Epic Fury is not a long-term occupation. Trump has made it clear he wants the Iranian people to "take back their country." But a country doesn't just transition to a new government in a vacuum. There are hundreds of thousands of armed men across the region who need to be accounted for.
By dangling the prospect of support—or at least the cessation of hostilities—to those who defect, the administration is trying to manage the chaos. It is a brutal, transactional approach to geopolitics that ignores the diplomatic niceties of the past. It assumes that every man has a price and that the "Deal of the Century" can be applied to a war zone.
Whether this leads to a stable Middle East or a fragmented collection of militia-run fiefdoms remains to be seen. What is certain is that the old policy of containment is dead. In its place is a high-stakes auction for the future of the region, where the currency is both lead and gold.
The Iranian regime's greatest strength—its network of proxies—has been identified as its most exploitable weakness. The coming weeks will reveal if these militias are as loyal as Tehran believed, or if they are simply waiting for a better offer.
Would you like me to analyze the specific economic impact of the 2026 dollar shortage on IRGC-linked companies in Iraq and Syria?
