Party primaries rarely stay quiet when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to reshape his political future. Right now, roughly 140,000 registered Likud members are heading to polling stations across Israel to pick their candidate slate for the upcoming Knesset election. On paper, it looks like a standard exercise in internal democracy. Under the hood, this primary represents a high-stakes power struggle over who actually controls the direction of Israel's ruling right-wing party.
Netanyahu didn't even want this vote to happen. Weeks ago, his camp tried to cancel the primary entirely, pushing for an appointed committee to handpick candidates. When Likud's internal party court struck that bid down, insisting the party shouldn't morph into a personal vehicle, the Prime Minister pivoted. He turned his attention to the party's Central Committee and walked away with heavily expanded control over the final candidate roster.
The Math Behind the Reserved Slots
To understand why this primary is tearing through conventional political norms, you have to look at the numbers. The Likud Central Committee approved a plan granting Netanyahu control over nearly a dozen reserved spots scattered throughout the top 29 positions on the list.
With Likud polling behind its historical highs, every realistic seat counts. Current projections place the party around 21 to 23 seats. Even if the party surges on election day, carving out multiple guaranteed slots for outsiders and loyalists leaves a shrinking pool of winnable positions for actual primary contenders.
Veteran lawmakers are sweating. Sitting members of Knesset find themselves pushed down the roster to make room for Netanyahu's handpicked picks, prompting some figures to bow out entirely rather than fight an uphill battle.
Balancing Loyalists and Swing Voters
Netanyahu's calculus is straightforward. He needs to construct an electoral list that satisfies the energized party base without scaring away moderate right-wing swing voters. Primaries often elevate fiery populists who play well with grassroots activists but alienate the broader general electorate.
By reserving slots for figures like Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar and other strategic allies, Netanyahu is also stitching together a wider right-wing bloc. It is a classic survival tactic. If smaller right-wing factions risk failing to clear the electoral threshold, integrating key allies directly into the Likud apparatus helps protect the broader coalition's total footprint in parliament.
Yet this top-down engineering has infuriated internal critics. Lawmakers like David Bitan openly railed against the changes, arguing that sidelining grassroots competition destroys the democratic ethos that Likud has historically championed.
What Happens Next for the Party
As ballots are cast and counted, the true impact of these rule changes will become glaringly obvious. If the newly structured list performs well, Netanyahu will be vindicated once again as a master tactician who bends internal party machinery to his absolute will.
If the strategy backfires and alienates loyal activists, the friction inside Likud won't vanish after election night. Watch how the remaining open slots shake out and check official updates from the Israel Democracy Institute to track how these structural shifts alter Israel's broader political landscape.
